Feasibility Study for Forecast-based Financing Interventions 

Criteria for identification and design of Forecast-based Financing Interventions

Forecast-based Financing (FbF) is a mechanism that uses climate and weather forecasts to trigger timely humanitarian action, before a hazard hits the exposed population. These actions are automatically funded when the triggering forecast is released.

This mechanism has been progressively developed since 2008. Several pilot projects are ongoing, which are contributing to build evidence about the potential to transform the current humanitarian system. Lessons, best practices and recommendations from these projects are the base for the development of a solid Forecast-based Financing knowledge management strategy.

A successful Forecast-based Financing implementation will depend on several aspects, ranging from availability of risk information to engagement of potential stakeholders. 

Learning from ongoing pilot experiences, this guide sets out a set of new considerations that can be used to select intervention areas that are most “ripe” for the introduction of Forecast-based Financing, encouraging the establishment of interventions that further consolidate knowledge and practice in this area. Based on the results of discussing each of the questions in this document, practitioners can focus their priorities in the design of a specific Forecast-based Financing intervention, focusing on the areas that need greatest support.

The guideline is divided in four parts: Risk Assessment, Forecasts Capabilities, Government Level and Organization Level analysis. After exploring each of these considerations, practitioners can select countries and/or regions for Forecast-based Financing interventions, and gain an understanding of which hazards would be ideal for each project. The qualitative responses can also indicate where more work should be directed in a particular intervention; for example, if one region has excellent forecasts but not enough information about risk factors, extra effort in the project should be focused on identifying and analysing those risk factors rather than focusing in forecast capacity, in the same direction if the feasibility study identify that the DRM capacity of the implementing organization needs improvement, the project/intervention could include a component of capacity building . At the end of this guide, there is a set of suggested question that could be used by the researcher to guide the study towards a deep understanding of the best strategy to implement a Forecast-based Financing intervention.

Target Audience for this guide: 

Scoping studies can be done directly by technical staff of the implementing organization/government, or could be conducted by external consultants. The process could take from one week to one month, depending on the level of details and geographical extension that is targeted.

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